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The change of regime and reciprocating the political dilemma of an independent state tends to be a complicated calculation to estimate through. But despite the diplomatic ties and long-term connections that embeds a peaceful settlement. Political outrages are inevitable especially with the change of a presidential administration that leads to national and international modifications that can affect what has been set in the past. The U.S. presidency and the Venezuelan administration have long struggled with forming a linear diplomatic link. Which points out their current political clash. 

Past/Present Relations

The U.S. and Venezuela’s diplomatic foreign relations have been fragile for a long time. What was considered as a prosperous link of economic boost for both of the economies, led to an open-ended possibility of a potential outcome of war that is used to be the main objective to stay away from. 

 

• 1835 –  marked the beginning of an independent state for Venezuela as the U.S. recognized the state’s right to full self-determination, which separated them from their political and diplomatic link with Columbia. This was the first step towards Venezuela’s openness and beneficial approach for national and international well-being.

 

• 1900’s –  Venezuela’s oil industry started to take lay its independent economic base,  which attracted American investments and companies, but with the concessions of Juan Vicente Gomez. 

• 1998 – With Hugo Chavez’s administration, diplomatic tensions escalated, especially with the ‘Devil’ speech back in 2006 at the UN where Chavez attacked former President Bush with reference to the former’s political hostility. 

• 2019 / Present – Diplomatic outbreak between both countries were actively reciprocated as an outcome of what has been set in the past decade. Venezuela extended the U.S. embassy’s and diplomatic operations and cut ties as a result. That has led to an outgrowing  strained relations that lasted until present day.

Nicolas Maduro

Maduro’s presidency was expected to bring in economic growth, but it led to an increasing instability and economic downturn that extends until this day. President Trump’s current opposition in regards to Venezuela is circulated around change. Immediate change that is themed around political upheaval and a direct collapse of Maduro’s administration.

The pressure of a radical change was enforced through physical attacks on Venezuela that was branched under the notion of attacking drug traffickers on boats. That later on expanded to airstrike and positioning American military ships all throughout the region. Which included Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Venezuelan seas bordering the land. 

Law of the sea in the event of the Airstrikes. 

President Trump announced on Truth social that a second airstrike on Venezuela was set on a boat that was smuggling illegal drugs into the U.S. The attack resulted in the death of 3 men onboard the boat. The aforesaid was followed by another airstrike on 4 boats in the Pacific coast of Central America. That resulted in the death of 14 men. Not only that, but the ensuing weeks were met by further attacks with a total of 8. Which eventually led to a total death rate of at least 38 individuals.

When asked about the back to back attacks on Venezuela and the role of the U.S. in enforcing regime change, President Trump stated “There are not enough assets for an invasion,” he said. “But there are enough ‘exquisite assets’ on site that could overwhelm the air defenses of the country, take out the Air Force, take out the navy, potentially decapitate the government if that were a decision that he decided to take.’’ . Trump’s statement concerning the current situation led the way to an open-ended possibility of a war, where he also confirmed that the attacks will not stop unless all the drug traffickers are caught and stopped from entering the U.S. lands.

Law of the Sea stands still in the case of the continuous attacks, although the U.S. is not a signatory of The Law of the Sea, military advisors encouraged tactic tactics that concerns hot pursuit that requires immediate intervention and response, as such the act of self-defense. Yet, President Trump briefed some Congress members about his plan to continue the strikes on Venezuela. When his Asian tour was over. The President also stated to some reported that now they’re looking into the lands. Which raised some doubts.

Recent military orders

With the end of the President’s Asian tour, Trump is more determinant in striking military bases in Venezuela. Which will take action within a few days or hours as reported. But when asked again about continuing the strikes and getting into war with Venezuela. The President answered with a solid ‘no’, despite the deployment of navy war ships and other Naval ordnance. 

Behind the Claims

Although Trump’s justification concerning the attacks on Venezuela is based on preventing the entry of illegal substance into the U.S. in form of self-preservation and protection. The claims tend to stand weak and unreasonable. The President accused Maduro of not only being involved in a drug cartel. But also leading it. Not only that, but Trump’s administration also ventured in tying Maduro to other drug-related groups. That were doubted by officials about their existence. 

The Venezuelan administration stated that behind the claims of not attacking their independent lands from the U.S. is a falsification of a heavy plot that awaits them. Especially with the heavy deployment of wartime equipment and navy ships throughout the region. 

The Preparation Period

The preparatory period was short as the situation escalated to reciprocated attacks from both. Although there has been denial concerning immediate attacks on military bases in Venezuela. Both the American and the Venezuelan administration and military counterparts are preparing for the unexpected.

Venezuela turned to Russia, Iran and China for military assistance in preparation for an attack. Where it has been leaked from U.S. sources that Venezuela has sought radar systems, missiles and aircraft support. As tension with Washington is heightening.

What’s next?

In spite of the push and pull of the political and military tension between both parties. Where a strong answer of going into war have not been formed. The bells of war are ringing and both administrations are anticipating the first strike. Which will determine the bases and the political estimation of why it happened and how will it end.