Political Awareness

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Sudan’s prolonged conflict and geopolitical discordancy

Every state that has been in a continuous loop of conflict and political incoordination. Always faces the long-term probability of instability and the return of warfare. Sudan is one of those countries that lack stability, with every change in power and leadership. The country jeopardizes its sovereignty. Especially with the existence of the parties that have been in an indirect dominance over governmental power. Causing endless civil wars over the years. And continues until this day. All of Sudan’s conflictual contexts are influenced by the geopolitical borderlines and changes. That are being forced to put in action despite community rejections and division.

3 Phases of Civil War in Sudan.

• First Civil War (1955-1972) –

The first phase of conflict began in 1955 as it was a geo-cultural war between Muslim Arabs based in the North and the African Christians. Who resided in the South of Sudan. With a motive of self-rule and geopolitical distinction that would separate the North from the South. Large-scale violent acts have been going on. Which led to long-term civil war that resulted in the death of half a million of people combined. The first civil war ended with the Addis Ababa Agreement that gave South Sudan its independent sovereignty and autonomy. That separates them from the North. But the agreement did not last as a second civil war corrupted in response.

• Second Civil War (1983-2005) –

As a result of the failure of the first peace settlement in 1972, a second phase of the war began in 1983 which was influenced by ethnic, religious and geopolitical differences that had a major role in the continuation of the conflict and the use of aggression against civilians as a strategy to mark their territory and sovereignty.

• Third Civil War (2023-Present-Day) –

Internal power struggle between the (RSF) and Sudanese Army opened a new phase of the war that is based and themed under mass extermination and destruction. Violent acts erupted and extended to Khartoum and Darfour, which led to a genocide and exterme starvation, famine and displacements.

Involved Parties in the War and who they are

• Rapid Support Forces – (RSF)

The RSF was created as a small group militia to suppress rebels in Darfur. And in 2012 it was officially summed up by the government under Omar Al-Bashir as a legit group to fight rebels as domestic violence and internal conflict started to arise. The full support from the government led the group to have access to highly developed military equipment and the authority to use violence whenever threat is set to be seen. The aforesaid was a huge step towards the downfall of Al-Bashir’s leadership, as RSF were seen to be committing horrific acts against civilians and started to have more power and authority than the state army. That led to a genocide and crimes against humanity which eventualllly resulted in the downfall of Al-Bashir, with an extensive continuation of civil conflict.

• Sudanese Armed Forces – (SAF)

SAF are Sudan’s official armed officials, they are the official group that Omar Al-Bashir have created RSF to fight against, among other rebels who are in support of them. And as RSF started to gain more power and sovereignty in ther military movement, the SAF started to lose control and authority. In 2019, SAF instituted a coup against Al-Bashir, which led to a civil war between them and RSF who were supported by the late leader.

Reasons of the Conflict

• Dominance of raw material

Geopolitical contexts have always been the major source of the issue, as both the North and South. Interested groups were influenced by the resources and raw materials that Sudan is rich with. And with the conflict, it has been a chaotic division of who gets what and how.

• Realpolitic and coups

Al-Bashir’s end of leadership was met by a struggle of maintaining a stable governance as both parties claimed their authority and positions. That have led to a continuation of civil conflicts and eventually war that is escalating to a degree of control.

• Military Rivalry

With both groups being well armed and martially trained, there has been a rivalry of force and power in regard to authority through violence. Which was acted on and led to a genocide.

• Failure in implementing Democracy

Democracy continues to be the only option to put the conflict at pause and allow peace settlement to take place between both of the armed involved parties. However, a democratic rule would mean an equal share of authority between the ruler and the people. It’s where armed military equipment’s would not be an option that could be used and maintained at all times. That have led to a rivalry in avoiding such an option and expanding the geographical dilemma of the conflict.

 Current state of war developments

• A thread of counteraccusations between the army and other countries on who is responsible for backing up the opposite forces against each other.

• Mutual settlement agreements through multiple meetings and setting based in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Kingdom of Bahrain. Have failed due to both parties and the army wanting the full prize of the conflict that is influence a victory to one part and surrender to the other.

• Official Genocide has been declares from the UN as a result of the ongoing violent acts where both of the involved  parties have been killing using well equiped military technologies to eliminate and exterminate a whole population, and that also included children and women.

• Major displacements where people are taking shelter in other neighboring cities or countries if they are taken in, while others are taking shelter in open areas through tents and given assisted living materials.

• Famine and Shortage of supplies is a causality that people suffer from and go through on daily bases. With more displacements and genocides, daily living necessities are not easy to find and even distribute. When humanitarian organization are absent from the scene due to security measures and the heavy violent actions that are taking place, and no guaranteed protection is set to be given.

•  One sided control is a sequence that can be seen throughout the conflict, where a specific group would be heavily involved ona  chosen geographical zone and take control over, while acting violently against those are not in favor of it.

• Ethnic cleansing is a strategy that is being used against both civilians from both parties to justify and enforce power and authority.

Probabilities and Projections

•  A land with no authority – the situation is a time-limited context. That is based on the lives of people being lost and others on the verge of facing the same fate. Which is why immediate interventions are required from international organizations to limit and prevent the escalation. Before it turns into an infinite war that has no start and end. The aforesaid will make the country be an open area of battlefield. With no rules and regulations. Which also refers to a land with no rule and a state.

• Economic collapse – The economic situation is not at its best. Especially since the war took a new turn in 2023 and continuous to get more intense. The collapse of the economy with no bases of a recovery is an expected scenario. Especially with the absence of governance and solid leadership.

•  International security concerns – with a prospect of an on-going war and the failure of reaching a peaceful settlement. Regional states fear the same fate especially that the geopolitical locations tend to expand by time. Not only that, but a state’s fall. Has also given the chance for other militias to follow a similar path. Which causes global instability and fear of losing leadership and sovereignty.