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Borderline tension is a new possibility for an inevitable war between Afghanistan and Pakistan. A long-term discord that escalated and extended to further international instability that has the power to initiate hostilities. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan are political powers with shared interests and concerns that led to an open-ended disagreement. While some nations would choose to initiate a diplomatic connection. The involved parties have decided to take actions in their own hands. Where they have implied their subjects to go ahead with using firearms when needed. 

When did it all start? 

The geopolitical tension has an extensive historical timeline that started back in 1893 and continues until this day. Over the years, multiple agreements were made that included peaceful settlements and armistice. But due to the push and pull of the political dilemma of the context. The agreements have been breached several times. That has led to a new phase of the intensified conflict.

• 1893-1894 : The Durand Line is the first borderline buffer zone that was created with the purpose of separating British ruled India and Afghanistan. The agreement was influenced by the British rule to outline and separate the regions they controlled and ruled, with the expanding Russian rule over the region.

• 1919 : Marked the end of the Third Anglo-Afghan war with the Rawalpindi agreement that built the foundation of the limitations for regional border extension. 

• 1979 : the starting point for the borderline tension as Afghanistan was invaded by the Soviets which led Pakistan to align with the U.S., not only that, but it’s also the period where mujahideen fighters were being recruited. That has led to an extensive critical geopolitical and domestic conflict, as there came to be a division.

• 2001 : Subsequent to the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, extreme fighters occupied the borders that separated Afghanistan and Pakistan, which led to domestic separation and political and geographical instability that is in control through complexity. 

• 2021 – Present : Following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the extremist rule (Taliban) has come back to power, leading to political unrest which started from the domestic authoritative rule all the way to acting upon the geographical part of it. 

 

Airstrikes heavily influenced by the (TTP)

The Pakistani Taliban are a jihadists militia who were formed to ally with the Afghan Taliban and operate on their behalf on the border that separates Pakistan with Afghanistan. The group were heavily influenced by the extreme Islamist doctrine. Which led to the formation of the so-called TTP who are seen to be in full control of the separating border. The beginning of their formation was based on low-profile change of policy and theory. A policy that was not accepted and taken by, which led to a shift in their geographical location. The place where they would be accepted and supported throughout their mission. 

 Taliban housed and supported TTP fighters throughout the process by granting them full access for combat equipment that are needed. As well as supporting them financially as to accommodate their families. According to sources from the United Nations, it has been estimated that a heavy value of around US$7 Billion of U.S. military equipment were provided to TTP fighters, which led to the heavy escalation of the geopolitical attacks and on-going national and international tension that has been building up in the region.

TTP fighters were well equipped and ready to commence their attacks, which started with Pakistan. That has led to domestic instability where violence and  focused aggression were taking place uncontrollably. And as a response to the actions that were taken against Pakistan on their lands, the authorities have decided to take actions of punishment and deterrence that started with deporting Afghans who migrated and took refuge away from Taliban leadership here on Pakistani lands. Furthermore, it has been an on-going push and pull of political strings that came to be accustomed to the dangerous probabilities. 

Recently

Pakistan have always had a dispute in regard to the TTP fighters who are accommodated in Afghanistan who were accommodated and taken to reside safely. But they are also in a position of taking action in a militarized form that would cause more disruption.

But since the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan, both Taliban and TTP fighters have had the upper hand in continuing their violence attacks against Pakistan, and in their land too. In the past month, the attacks on Pakistan from TTP have increased that it got more detailed in regards to their targets and their locations chosen for such an act.

The attacks have been proceeding from both sides where local crowded places were being targeted. And recently In the past month, the first attack agitated the center of Kabul. Followed by an airstrike attack that was targeted on a market in Eastern Afghanistan. The aforesaid airstrike came days after 11 Pakistani soldiers lost their lives to a TTP attack.

Who to Blame?

The attacks on Afghanistan are considered as a counterattack of the previous violations and also the 11 soldiers who lost their lives prior to this. Although Afghanistan blamed Pakistan for their attacks and encouraged them to take full responsibility for their actions. There has been no political response from them. They have neither denied nor agreed on their full accountability. 

The political silence that emerged after the attacks was a preparation for further outcomes that would take the military dilemma to its peak, a reality that was inevitable. The borderline between both countries was seen to be fully equipped by soldiers and TTP fighters. Who took the chance and took on violence actions that killed 23 Pakistani soldiers. An act that left both governments and leaderships taking the right measure of preparing for a war. A domestic geopolitical war that would extend for years to come. If and when the dispute is seen to continue its purpose. 

The buildup of the attacks came in with the final response from Pakistan. That sealed the geopolitical deal for an upcoming long-term conflict. The latest attacks on Afghanistan came to be targeted at two of the largest cities in Afghanistan, Kabul and Kandahar. According to officials, the attacks were aimed at TTP soldiers and other militias. 

Peaceful Settlements amid the Breach

Afghanistan and Pakistan have agreed to enter a 48-hr ceasefire to ensure a peaceful settlement between both neighboring countries.  It’s the first phase of the settlement. An introductory scene to introduce future long-term settlements that would allow prosperity between both countries. However, the attacks and airstrikes continued on Friday, right after the ceasefire agreement expired. The attacks resulted in the death of multiple cricket players and other civilians. Which Pakistan have denied having targeted any domestic area with civilians. Who are not involved in any of the jihadists groups and militias. 

After a week of the on-going attacks between both countries. That led to severe crash of the infrastructure and political instability that was also followed by domestic insecurity among people. The second phase of a peaceful settlement and most official of them all took place. 

The truce was hosted among both Taliban and Pakistan leaders by Qatar and Turkey in Doha. The aforesaid peaceful agreement was set in motion directly after the settlement was agreed on all articles from the agenda. 

Taliban’s government chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid has stated a day earlier about the prosperity of the agreement. And how both countries will respect the ceasefire entitled among them. He emphasized on the lookout for a long-term peaceful agreement that will be established on the long-term if and when no breach of the agreement has been done. As he said “It has been decided that neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other, nor will they support groups carrying out attacks against Pakistan. Both sides will refrain from targeting each other’s security forces, civilians or critical infrastructure.”

In Conclusion

As per the agreement have gone and was successful enough to take the step towards peaceful compromise from both Afghanistan and Pakistan. A follow-up meeting has been scheduled to take place on the 25th of October in Istanbul. 

The meeting seemed to be promising. Both leaders have thanked the Qatari and Turkish delegations for their diplomatic mediation. That is leading the to a peaceful region with less tensions and long-term conflicts. As Pakistan’s Defense Minster have stated on X platform “Both countries will respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. A follow-up meeting between the delegations is scheduled to take place in Istanbul on October 25 to discuss the matters in detail.”