Political Awareness

Background on the Strait of Hormuz 

One of the most vital oil chokepoints in the global economy, the Strait of Hormuz, roughly exports 20 to 30% of global maritime oil and liquefied natural gas through the strait. This is an average of approximately 20.3 million barrels of petroleum and crude oil each day.

Map of the Strait of Hormuz. Goran_tek-en, Wikimedia Commons.

During the Iran-Iraq War, the countries involved in the conflict began attacking each other’s oil tanker shipping. Additionally, Iran also attacked tankers traveling to and from Kuwait, as well as other Gulf states. This became known as the Tanker War, which included strikes on more than 100 oil tankers and required the United States and several Western European nations to become involved in order to ensure tankers were safely making it through the passage. There have been numerous standoffs involving Iranian and U.S. naval forces in the 21st century, becoming a battleground between the two nations. 

In June 2025, the U.S. had strikes on several nuclear facilities in Iran during the 12-Day War. This heightened tensions as the Iranian parliament authorized Iran’s armed forces to close the strait. Although the strait was not closed due to the conflict being resolved two days later, fear of oil prices hiking globally led to tankers changing course to avoid the strait entirely. 

Present Day

Iran kept its promise in 2026 after the Iran war broke out, significantly reducing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian forces attacked vessels. Within days, oil prices surged, along with prices for commodities dependent on access to the Persian Gulf, including natural gas, fertilizer, and critical metals. Several ceasefires have occurred, but tensions have continued, creating a shipping crisis with the potential to contribute to a global recession.

The countries most affected include India, China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Several are major global exporters, meaning disruptions could affect supply chains worldwide, including in the United States.

U.S. Response to the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

On August 12, President Trump said the United States had “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. He described the U.S. naval blockade as a “wall of steel” and said Iran could do “nothing” about it.

The following day, Vice President Vance said the Trump administration would impose measures unlike those previously used in the economic isolation of a country, referring to the blockade of Iranian imports and exports. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United States of intelligence failures and warned against another “miscalculation” over the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian military spokesperson also said the strait remained under Iran’s “full management and control.”

On August 17, Trump reiterated that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was the administration’s “number one goal.” He also warned that the United States could strike Oman if it interfered with U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC responded that it would “crush any threat or aggression.” The two sides continued to make conflicting claims over whether the strait was open or closed. Trump maintained that the strait was open and that U.S. forces controlled it.

September

On September 1, President Masoud Pezeshkian asserted that the United States had breached its commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and that Iran would respond if Washington continued to do so. Iran’s parliamentary speaker said the country remained in a “full-scale military war” and would respond militarily to further escalation of the blockade. That same day, U.S. Central Command announced strikes against IRGC targets in Iran following attempted attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. service members. The strikes targeted air-defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities, and communications sites.

On September 9, Trump said the war would end “right after” the U.S. midterm elections and that oil prices were unlikely to fall until then. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel as fighting around the Strait of Hormuz intensified. U.S. forces had recently struck Iranian oil tankers after attempted Iranian attacks on a U.S. Navy warship. Iran has also threatened U.S. allies in the Gulf and U.S. military bases in the region, increasing uncertainty over the conflict and global energy supplies.

The Future of Oil Prices & Policy

As the conflict remains unresolved, Americans can expect an increase in gas prices further due to a rise in global oil prices to $100 to $120 a barrel. The price of Brent crude oil has climbed to approximately $100 a barrel from $72 a barrel in the past two months. American consumers have spent an additional $100 billion on fuel between the start of the Iran war, according to Brown University. 

This continued increase is squeezing household budgets furtherer as Americans face already rising inflation costs for groceries and other goods. In August, the inflation is predicted to reach 3.3%, which is above the 2% target of the Federal Reserve. Yet, the Trump administration expects oil prices to fall below pre-war levels once the conflict ends. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Sunday that the energy supply shock “is going to end.” This expectation is tied to the midterm elections, according to President Trump. 

However, gas prices are influenced by more than presidential policy. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have faced fluctuations in gas prices due to broader global factors, including international conflicts. Americans should therefore also consider foreign policy factors that affect oil prices, such as the ongoing conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. While the conflict was not directly caused by the president, the administration is responsible for managing the U.S. response.

Sources: 

Associated Press. “Iran-Backed Fighters in Yemen and Iraq Are Threatening the Gulf.” AP News, https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-houthis-yemen-iraq-blockade-41b104b908daeb58ad1d714224f8f570.

CBS News. “Oil Prices Could Hit $120, Analysis Finds, as Americans Absorb $100 Billion Fuel Hit.” CBS News, 8 Sept. 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oil-prices-forecast-goldman-sachs-iran-war/. (CBS News)

Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Strait of Hormuz.” Encyclopaedia Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/place/Strait-of-Hormuz.

International Crisis Group. “Strait of Hormuz.” International Crisis Group, https://www.crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/iran-usisrael-trigger-list/flashpoints/strait-hormuz.

National Public Radio. “Iran War: Leave U.S. Bases in Gulf Facing Uncertain Future.” NPR, https://www.npr.org/2026/09/08/nx-s1-5955451/iran-war-leave-u-s-bases-in-gulf-facing-uncertain-future.

Pakistan Chemical Manufacturers Association. “Top 15 Countries Most Affected by the Strait of Hormuz Closure.” Pakistan Chemical Manufacturers Association, https://pcma.org.pk/top-15-countries-most-affected-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-closure/.

United Nations. “Ships and seafarers increasingly caught in the crossfire of unrelated wars” United Nations News, https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/09/1168297.

Wikimedia Commons. “Strait of Hormuz.svg.” Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Strait_of_Hormuz-svg-en.svg.

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