Political Awareness

The Currency of Media in African Politics

In 2022, a movement took the Nigerian political ecosphere by storm. They were called the “Obidients,” supporters of Peter Obi, a former Nigerian state governor who was now campaigning against the ruling party– the All Progressive Congress (APC)- through the Labour Party (LP), a rather new player in the country’s presidential politics. This was positioned to be a revolutionary opposition to the presumed economic and social turmoil the country had been facing under the ruling party.

Social Media’s Role in Shaping Political Narratives

The forerunners of this movement took to social media in numbers, rallying public sentiment and media presence. In less than a year, they had replaced the longstanding opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), in online political relevance. The movement became a digital army that was presumed to translate into physical impact in the coming elections — the ultimate underdog story.

The 2023 Election Outcome and Its Implications

However, in 2023, the LP lost the presidential election, coming third in the race behind the PDP and APC. The party had only received about 25% of the presidential votes.

Historical Context: Media and Youth-Led Revolutions in Africa

Over the last decade, Africa has seen many similar underdog stories championed by immense media presence, often led by young people, and more often than not these “revolutions” do not translate into real change. In 2019, Uganda’s Bobi Wine, also named “the People’s President,” had gained immense media popularity and was viewed by many as a sought-after winner, only to lose to incumbent president Yoweri Museveni, who had been in power since 1986.

The Power Dynamics of Social Media in African Politics

The big question then becomes: how much power does social media really have in the face of African politics?

Diversity of Political Systems Across Africa

There is no uniformity in the organization of African political systems – the continent has dictatorships, autocracies, democracies and more. However, there are very similar nuances in the factors that shape political results and control within the continent. These factors influence the direction of political and electoral turnout directly or indirectly, often overriding the influence of media solidarity.

Key Factors Influencing Political Outcomes

Incumbency Advantages
More often than not, incumbency provides strong hegemony over political direction. This can translate into the control of electoral institutions and processes, targeted media control, and the control of resources. Examples include the African National Congress (ANC) of South Africa and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) of Uganda.

Ethnic and Regional Loyalty

Relatively more common within the older generation, this sees citizens more aligned to parties and representatives from similar ethnic or regional backgrounds. Urban and rural attachments also play a role in shaping political loyalty and turnout.

Grassroots Political Structures and Rural Mobilization

Political success in many African countries heavily depends on grassroots politics and physical political presence. Winning parties often possess long-established local networks capable of influencing voters in areas where social media is limited.

Youth Frustration and Political Engagement

Perhaps the most prominent of these factors is the question of youth frustration versus youth turnout. Support for certain parties often stems from turmoil and lasting frustration, with social media serving as the primary outlet for expression. Africa’s young population drives online political conversations, creating the illusion of massive support. However, this does not always translate into votes. For example, the Obidients movement focused on voter registration, but fears of electoral violence limited actual turnout.

Social Media Penetration and Its Limitations

According to Datareportal’s statistics (March 2025), only about 16% of Nigerians are active on social media, with similar figures in other countries like Uganda (roughly 5%). The majority of voters, especially in democracies like Nigeria, are not on social media and remain skeptical of social media-driven narratives. Grassroots politics and local support continue to be vital in winning elections.

The Strategic Role of Media in Political Campaigns

The influence of media cannot be understated. Public opinion and propaganda play crucial roles in shaping perceptions and political directions. The impact varies depending on context, but in Africa, media often serves best as an initial tool to rally community sentiments rather than a definitive predictor of election outcomes.

Conclusion: The Currency of Media in African Elections

In Africa, the media’s influence is most potent at the procurement stage—used to introduce and shape initial narratives. However, countries with low social media penetration and multiple layers of political influence, such as Nigeria, should be cautious in assigning election results solely to social media sentiments. While social media shapes conversations, it does not always determine election outcomes.

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Note: This content was created with AI assistance and reviewed by Political Awareness Super PAC staff. Paid for by Political Awareness Super PAC FEC ID C00892364. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.