Political Awareness

Ukraine and Its Efforts to Join the European Union and Where They Are in the Process

Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine has repeatedly declared its intention to become part of the European political and economic community. Yet, unlike several Central and Eastern European states that joined the European Union (EU) in the enlargements of 2004, 2007, and 2013, Ukraine remained outside the Union for more than three decades. The question is therefore not whether Ukraine sought closer relations with Europe, but why membership remained unattainable for so long and why the process accelerated dramatically after 2022.

Why Ukraine Did Not Become an EU Candidate Earlier

Ukraine’s early path to the EU was blocked by a continuous political tug-of-war between its presidents, who kept swapping a pro-Western direction for a pro-Russian one. During the 1990s, President Leonid Kuchma tried a “multi-vector” policy, signing an early EU partnership in 1998 while simultaneously extending Russia’s naval lease in Crimea until 2017 to keep Moscow happy. After the 2004 Orange Revolution, the pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko took over and successfully won “Market Economy Status” from the EU in 2005. However, Russia retaliated against his Western push by shutting off vital natural gas pipelines in 2006 and 2009, which crippled the economy.

The pendulum swung back in 2010 when the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych took power. He famously extended Russia’s Crimea lease by an extra 25 years in exchange for a 30% gas discount. The ultimate breaking point came on November 21, 2013, when Yanukovych abruptly refused to sign a finalized EU Association Agreement. He walked away from Europe after Vladimir Putin offered him a $15 billion bailout loan and cheaper gas, a move that sparked the Euromaidan protests and drove Ukraine into years of political instability.

Challenges to Ukraine’s EU Integration: Corruption, Oligarchic Power, and Institutional Weaknesses

Even when pro-Western leaders wanted to join Europe, Ukraine could not meet the EU’s strict accession criteria because of rampant corruption, a weak judicial system, and the heavy hand of powerful oligarchic networks. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, insider privatization allowed a handful of oligarchs to buy up massive state-owned steel and chemical factories for pennies. These billionaires relied on cheap, subsidized Russian gas to run their businesses, so they actively used their wealth to buy political parties and block free-market rules. This cozy setup resulted in weak courts and an uneven implementation of laws, as judges were easily bribed to protect oligarch monopolies rather than uphold the rule of law.

Because European membership requires a clean, competitive economy and an independent justice system, Ukraine’s deep institutional rot made it a non-starter for EU candidate status. The country remained trapped in a cycle where laws were written on paper to please Brussels, but never actually enforced at home because doing so would ruin the oligarchs’ business models.

What Changed After 2022?

The 2022 full-scale Russian invasion forced Ukraine to completely change how it operates. Just four days after the war started, on February 28, 2022, Ukraine officially applied to join the European Union. The war physically destroyed many of the big eastern factories owned by wealthy oligarchs, which took away their money and their power to block clean-government laws. With the oligarchs out of the way, Ukraine quickly fixed its corrupt court systems and gave its anti-corruption watchdogs the power to arrest crooked officials.

Europe noticed this quick cleanup and threw out its old, slow rulebook. The EU gave Ukraine official candidate status on June 23, 2022, and formally started membership talks in June 2024. To get ready for full membership, Ukraine spent months rewriting thousands of its old laws to match European trade, energy, and digital standards. By cutting its old ties with Moscow and plugging directly into Europe’s economy, Ukraine permanently ended its thirty-year balancing act between the East and the West.

Where Ukraine Currently Stands in the Accession Process

Ukraine has successfully advanced into the most critical phase of its journey toward full European Union membership. Following its initial application just days after the 2022 invasion, Kyiv officially received EU candidate status on June 23, 2022, and formal talks kicked off in June 2024. A foundational milestone was achieved in September 2025, when Ukraine completed a massive, line-by-line legislative screening process to align its post-Soviet regulations with the EU rulebook. A major breakthrough occurred following a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Hungary regarding on expanding the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine’s Zakarpattia Oblast, estimated at 60,000–70,000 people.

Concerning ethnic minority rights, in return Hungary expressed its readiness to support the opening of the first negotiation cluster covering the so-called fundamentals. Thereby breaking a two-year deadlock resulting from the veto imposed by the previous government. As a result, all 27 EU member states unanimously agreed to move forward.

Progress and Ambitions in Ukraine’s EU Integration

The current Council presidency announced the formal opening of Cluster 1, known as the “Fundamentals,” at an Intergovernmental Conference scheduled for June 15, 2026, in Luxembourg. This mandatory first cluster covers five essential negotiating chapters, strictly focusing on court system independence, anti-corruption watchdogs, and democratic institutions, “Chapter 5: Public Procurement, Chapter 18: Statistics, Chapter 23: Judiciary and Fundamental Rights, Chapter 24: Justice, Freedom, and Security, Chapter 32: Financial Control”

While starting Cluster 1 is a massive victory, Ukraine is pushing an ambitious diplomatic campaign to move even faster. Backed by the leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8), Ukrainian officials are aiming to bypass the standard one-by-one timeline and open all six negotiating clusters simultaneously. Despite this intense momentum,
Senior officials including EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and veteran MEP Petras Auštrevičius have stated that Ukraine’s EU membership by 2027 is unrealistic, citing the need to meet strict, merit- based criteria instead they point toward a more practical timeline of 2030 for full integration. Ukraine is integrating into Europe piece by piece; for instance, the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area was upgraded to link markets closer, and on January 1st, 2026Ukraine officially entered the EU free roaming area, enabling free mobile usage across all 27 EU nations.

Can Ukraine Join the EU While It Is at War?

One of the most important analytical questions concerns whether Ukraine can realistically join the European Union while the war with Russia continues. This issue is frequently misunderstood because legal and political considerations are often conflated.

From a legal perspective, either article 49 of EU treaties which “provides the legal basis for any European state to join the EU” or the 1993 Copenhagen criteria which
“provide additional requirements that a candidate country must meet to become a member state of the EU” doesn’t prohibit accession by a country engaged in an armed conflict. The formal requirements for membership concern democratic governance, rule of law, economic criteria, and adoption of majority vote of the European Parliament.
There is no treaty provision stating that a candidate country must be free from military conflict before joining. According to the Lotus Principle” this principle states that whatever is not explicitly forbidden by law is permitted” it confirm that from the legal perspective current war won’t block Ukraine to join EU.

However, political realities create a paradox because war affects state capacity, economic development, infrastructure, public finances, and institutional performance.
Reconstruction costs are expected to be substantial. Uncertainty regarding territorial control may also complicate implementation of EU law in affected regions.

The Hungarian Question and the June 2026 Agreement

Before 2026, Hungary used its power to stop Ukraine from joining the European Union. In the EU, every single member country must agree before a new country can join.
Hungary used this rule to block Ukraine during 2025 and early 2026. The main fight was

about a small group of Hungarian people living in a part of Ukraine called
Transcarpathia. Hungary’s leaders argued that new Ukrainian laws were taking away the rights of these people to speak their own language and study in Hungarian schools.
Because of this, Hungary refused to let Ukraine move forward.

This major roadblock finally cleared in June 2026 after Hungary elected a new leader. The new government sat down with Ukraine and made a practical deal. Ukraine agreed to protect the language, schools, and culture of the local Hungarian people. By signing this agreement, Hungary stopped blocking the talks. This breakthrough allowed Ukraine to finally open the first major round of EU entry negotiations. This shows that joining the EU is not just about passing official tests, but also about fixing old fights and making peace with your neighbors.

What EU could gain from Ukraine membership

The European Union has been losing economic influence to the emerging powers in Asia and even to its closest ally, the United States, the event such as; COVID 19 pandemic, Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 lead to energy crisis, shortages of goods and disruption of supply chains which shown how vulnerable the EU economy is to external dependencies. Ukraine membership could help to find solutions to the demographic crisis, energy crisis and internal market problems.

First one, Raw materials and energy:

Ukraine has 5% of the world’s raw materials and natural resources, including 22 out of 30 critical raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and titanium, which are vital for European production. Ukraine also has great potential in the energy sector: it has significant potential in nuclear energy, natural gas, coal production and renewable energy. Most of the raw materials for solar panels are found in Ukraine. In addition, the country has one of the largest underground gas storage facilities on the continent, with 33 billion cubic metres of gas.

Secondly, Demography:

According to Eurostat’s population forecasts. The population of the current 27 EU member states may drop significantly from 451 million in 2022 to 406 million in 2050. The pre-war Ukrainian population of 41 million could help the EU’s labor market problems.

Thirdly, Economy:

Integrating Ukraine into the EU market will help European businesses grow while turning the continent into a global food powerhouse. European companies will gain access to 40 million new consumers, and smaller businesses can profit by helping the country rebuild. Furthermore, Ukraine’s strong factories and farms will boost Europe’s ability to compete against other international rivals. By adding Ukraine’s massive agricultural sector, the EU’s total farmland will expand by one-third, and the bloc will supply nearly half of Ukraine’s grains, 80% of its sunflower oil, and 25% of its poultry. Ultimately, this partnership will push the EU’s share of global wheat exports to 30%. Allowing Europe to pass Russia as the world’s top grain seller and secure its role as a leader in global food security.

Conclusion

Ukraine currently stands closer to EU membership than at any point since independence. Candidate status, the opening of accession negotiations, progress within the Fundamentals Cluster. And the June 2026 Hungarian–Ukrainian agreement collectively demonstrate substantial advancement.

Nevertheless, significant challenges remain. Continued reform implementation, judicial independence, anti‑corruption efforts, administrative capacity, and economic adaptation will remain central to the accession process. Furthermore, the EU itself must consider how the accession of a large country such as Ukraine would affect institutional governance, budgetary allocations, agricultural policy, and decision‑making procedures.

References

1. Conference on accession to the European Union – Ukraine. Brussels, 21 June 2024. AD 9/24. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/hzmfw1ji/public- ad00009en24.pdf
2. LIBOREIRO, Jorge: „Ukraine’s accession could cost €136 billion to the EU budget, new report estimates.” In: Euronews. 2024.03.07. https://www.euronews.com/myeurope/2024/03/07/ukraines-accession-could-cost- 136-billion-to-the-eu-budget-new-reportestimates
3. DARVAS, Zsolt; DABROWSKI, Marek; GRABBE, Heather; MOFFAT, Luca Léry; SAPIR,
4. André; ZACHMANN, Georg: “Ukraine’s path to European Union membership and its long-term implications”. In: Bruegel. 2024.03.07. https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/ukraines-patheuropean-union-membership- and-its-long-term-implications
5. Hungary and Ukraine agree on minority rights, paving way for EU talks https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-ukraine-reach-crucial-agreement- minority-rights-pm-magyar-says-2026-06-03/

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