Political Awareness

Strategic Importance

The Middle East remains one of the most strategically important regions for the United States. The vast amounts of oil and gas resources make the region economically vital for many Western nations. Roughly 30% of the global supply is exported from the Middle East. Any disruptions to this flow can have significant consequences for the U.S. and the global economy. Additionally, as many countries in the region are experiencing political instability, the United States works to expand its influence in these nations by promoting its economic interests, safeguarding trade routes, and securing trade agreements.

Russia and China also aim to influence these nations by expanding their economic and diplomatic ties, making the region rife with geopolitical competition. While the U.S. is still arguably the most influential external power in the region, China has made large gains with countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. China is currently the top export market for these nations. It has secured multiple key trade agreements through its Belt and Road Initiative in the past decade, threatening the strategic advantage the U.S. has traditionally maintained in the region.

National Security Implications

Given the regional conflicts and volatility present in many areas of the Middle East, national security is a top priority for the United States. The rise in religious and political extremism, as well as anti-American sentiment in many Middle Eastern countries, has only highlighted the importance of preparing for any threats that may be posed to the U.S. and its allies. Suppressing extremist networks like al-Qaeda and ISIS remains vital. These groups thrive on instability, as it allows them to increase their influence in various nations and use them as safe havens for their operations. When a country is in the middle of an ongoing conflict, the potential for radicalization drastically increases. This dynamic expands recruitment both in the country and to those citizens abroad.

In recent years, a new threat has emerged: state-sponsored groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis are becoming increasingly powerful. The financial backing from countries like Iran and Syria allows them to grow at a substantial rate. These states provide weapons and training that allow these groups to enhance their military capabilities. These groups often have to navigate complex diplomatic relations and govern locally. They are typically more concerned with expanding territorial and political control as opposed to carrying out global terror operations. However, the October 7th attacks demonstrate they will employ terror to advance their mission.

Foreign Policy

While U.S. foreign policy regarding the Middle East has transformed over the years, multiple objectives have remained the same.

Regional Partnerships

• Israel: The partnership between the U.S. and Israel is characterized by intelligence sharing, joint military cooperation, and diplomatic support. While the alliance remains strong, friction has arisen regarding disagreements over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

 

• Saudi Arabia & The Gulf States (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain): These partnerships are vital for the United States, as these countries hold substantial amounts of oil and gas resources and host multiple key bases for the American military. However, the various partnerships with China and the issues regarding human rights violations have become an increasing cause for concern.

 

• Jordan & Egypt: These countries are often seen as crucial anchors for diplomacy in the region, as they were some of the first to sign peace treaties with Israel. They act as diplomatic mediators and receive foreign aid from the U.S. to combat domestic extremism and secure their borders.

 

State Rivalries

• Iran: U.S. policymakers view Iran as a primary threat in the region due to its leadership role in the “Axis of Resistance,” a decentralized network working to counter the external influence of the U.S. in the region via its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Palestine. 

 

• Syria (Normalizing Relations): Following the collapse of the Assad regime, the United States has begun to increase cooperation with the nation. Undertaking steps such as planning to reopen the U.S. embassy in the country and lifting various sanctions, signifying that Syria is no longer viewed as strictly adversarial by the United States leadership.

 

Diplomacy

• Abraham Accords: The United States has been pushing for diplomacy in the region via the Abraham Accords. The Accords are a set of agreements that establish diplomatic, economic, and security guarantees between Israel and Muslim-majority countries. The countries that have agreed to participate in these accords so far are Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Kazakhstan, and the UAE. However, not all countries mentioned have officially ratified the agreements at this point.

Iran Conflict

U.S. and Israeli officials have stated that the conflict arose in an effort to combat Iranian influence in the region, halt the Iranian nuclear weapons program, and dismantle the current regime. Some analysts debate the validity of these claims and warn that it could lead to a protracted conflict. Regardless, the consequences continue to affect global markets, particularly due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The global oil supply has been disrupted, and domestic gas prices continue to climb. Peace talks are currently underway as all parties involved look to stop the economic bleeding this conflict has created.

Iran is looking for guarantees, such as the U.S. lifting all economic sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, and committing to end interference in Iranian affairs, both internal and external. While the United States is seeking the dismantling of enriched uranium stockpiles, an end to Iranian support of regional proxy groups, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. When an agreement will be reached and what terms will ultimately be accepted is yet to be determined.

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